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Investing.com -- UBS analysts cautioned that Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) may face headwinds in the near term, citing findings from their 2025 UBS Evidence Lab Global EV survey. 

According to UBS, “declining EV interest and affordability concerns may limit near-term growth” for the electric vehicle maker.

While Rivian’s brand awareness in the U.S. has improved slightly, from 10% in 2024 to 13% this year, consumer consideration is said to remain low. 

“Only ~5% of BEV owners/buyers indicated they would consider purchasing a RIVN (up from 4.5% last year),” UBS said. For comparison, UBS estimates Rivian’s estimated 2024 U.S. BEV market share, excluding vans, was around 3%.

The survey also found that while many consumers still seek more EV alternatives, interest in EVs overall has declined.

“Given potential pushout of EPA requirements and repeal of the California waiver, the EV inflection may be further out than expected,” UBS warned, noting that removing the California waiver could also impact Rivian’s ability to generate and sell Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits.

Affordability also remains a key barrier, according to the bank. 

“Only ~35% of respondents believed EVs are affordable vs. ICE (NYSE:ICE) vehicles,” UBS noted. Rivian’s current models—the R1S SUV and R1T pickup—start at $75,900 and $69,900, respectively, well above the $47,900 average price for a U.S. vehicle.

UBS also flagged risk around the possible elimination of consumer clean vehicle tax credits, which they estimate supported around 59% of Rivian’s 2024 vehicle leases.

“Near-term, especially if U.S. policies move away from an EV world, continued cost out of the R1 and increased manufacturing efficiencies are key,” UBS said.

UBS maintains a Neutral rating on Rivian, seeing longer-term potential but a tougher near-term landscape.

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