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Bitcoin's ($BTC ) 50% drop from its peak last November is nothing new and the correction is within historical norms, investment bank %MorganStanley ($MS ) said in a research note to clients.

In its report, called “State of the Bear Market,” Morgan Stanley said that estimating the fair value of cryptocurrencies is difficult as they trade in a speculative manner, helped by the large availability of U.S. dollars and central bank liquidity.

If %Bitcoin trades below $28,000 U.S. the market may expect further weakness as this is around last year’s lows. On the upside, $45,000 U.S. is the level to watch because that would suggest the recent downtrend may be turning around, the report says.

The bank notes that Bitcoin has witnessed 15 bear markets since its creation in 2009, and the correction seen in recent months is within the range of what has happened before.

“Until Bitcoin is commonly used as a currency for goods and services transactions (in the crypto or non-crypto world), it is hard to value Bitcoin on fundamental demand beyond the asset speculation,” Morgan Stanley said.

Cryptocurrency investors may need to be patient if we are in the middle of a bigger risk market correction, the bank said. Alternatively, leverage in the cryptocurrency market would need to rise for a bullish trend to begin as central bank liquidity is removed, reads its report.

Regulation, %nonfungibletokens (%NFTs) and stable coin issuance are areas to watch in the coming months that could continue to impact cryptocurrency prices, according to Morgan Stanley’s note.


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