%{{tag.tag}} {{articledata.title}} {{moment(articledata.cdate)}} @{{articledata.company.replace(" ","")}} comment The Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's crude oil flows, is unlikely to open anytime soon, if prediction markets are to be believed. The Middle Eastern waterway has been closed since war broke out between the U.S. and Iran on Feb. 28 of this year. On prediction market Kalshi, the odds that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before April 15 sits below 25%. However, the probability improves to more than 67% for a reopening by June 1 and rises to 76% by July 1. Bettors on Kalshi have wagered more than $100,000 U.S. on the timing of the Strait of Hormuz reopening as the war in Iran drags on. The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a critical point of tension in the Middle East conflict and a choke point for global crude oil. Iran has stopped trade between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, launching drones at passing ships and claiming to have planted underwater mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Closure of the waterway has been blamed for sending crude oil prices as high as $120 U.S. a barrel in recent weeks. Brent crude oil, the international standard, is currently trading at $100 U.S. per barrel amid growing signs of a diplomatic solution to the Iran war.